On Tuesday, Republican strategist Karl Rove observed that Vice President Kamala Harris is currently trailing behind President Biden and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in her campaign metrics.
Rove highlighted on Fox News that, at this stage in 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by a margin of 7.1 percentage points according to the Real Clear Politics averages. Similarly, in 2016, Hillary Clinton held a 6.3 percentage point lead over Trump. Despite the narrow outcome of that election, which hinged on a few pivotal states, Clinton’s loss was evident, whereas Biden managed a slim victory by 42,000 votes spread across three states.
Karl Rove notes Harris’s narrow lead over Trump compared to Biden and Clinton’s stronger margins
However, Rove noted that Harris’s current lead over Trump is modest—1.5 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average and 3.5 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEight average. Though Harris is ahead, her lead is far smaller compared to the margins Biden and Clinton enjoyed at similar points in their respective campaigns.
He emphasized that these national averages do not fully capture the situation, particularly in crucial battleground states where detailed polling data remains sparse. Since Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’s subsequent entry last month, her poll numbers have improved. She has managed to close the gap with Trump, and she now leads in several national polls.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ reports that Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, based on an aggregation of 140 polls. Their updated forecast gives Harris a 55 percent probability of winning in November, a serious rise from Biden’s 44 percent chance before his exit on July 21.
