An election analyst has adjusted its outlook for the North Carolina gubernatorial race, now leaning in favor of Democrats as state Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic contender, gains substantial leads over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in recent surveys.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its rating from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” on Wednesday, citing Stein’s polling advantage and his campaign’s fundraising edge. This contest is among the few highly competitive governor’s races this year, occurring alongside the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, both vying for North Carolina’s pivotal votes.
Election analyst shifts North Carolina gubernatorial race to lean Democratic as Josh Stein gains in polls
In explaining the shift, Sabato’s highlighted Robinson’s alignment with the “MAGA wing” of the GOP, noting that he has made several controversial remarks on issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights. Robinson has previously described homosexuality and “transgenderism” as “filth” and has vehemently labeled abortion as “murder” and “genocide.” However, he appears to have softened his stance on abortion recently, following a campaign ad in which he revealed that he and his wife had undergone an abortion three decades ago.
Robinson has since expressed support for North Carolina’s current 12-week abortion ban, which includes exceptions for rape, incest, and to protect the mother’s life. Despite Robinson’s shifting stance, Stein has largely avoided engaging with Robinson’s more extreme views but has criticized his hardline position on abortion. However, Stein has outspent Robinson in advertising by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
Recent polls have consistently shown Stein widening his lead, with The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average placing him 10 points ahead. However, Sabato’s Crystal Ball cautioned that large margins of victory are uncommon in North Carolina; for instance, outgoing Governor Roy Cooper led by 11 points in polls before the 2020 election but won by only about 4.5 points.
While Sabato’s doesn’t expect Stein to win by as wide a margin as Cooper, the analyst now considers him the slight favorite. This rating adjustment follows a similar shift by the Cook Political Report, which also recently moved the race to “lean Democratic.”
