The process of determining election winners begins once the polls close on Election Day, transitioning from voting to counting. Each state reports its vote totals at different speeds, with some states like Florida and Georgia quickly tabulating results, while others like Arizona and California may take longer, sometimes weeks.
The timing and manner in which votes are reported can create confusion about the projected outcomes, as early tallies may not reflect the final results.
One significant phenomenon that can complicate early election reporting is the concept of “vote mirages.” This occurs when the current vote counts present a misleading picture of a candidate’s performance based on early reporting.
For instance, if mail ballots are counted before in-person votes, it can appear that one party is performing better than they will ultimately do once all votes are tallied. These mirages can be either “red” or “blue,” depending on which party seems to benefit from the initial counts.
Vote mirages arise from three main factors: geography, vote mode, and the order of tabulation. Geographic discrepancies occur when faster-reporting areas, often rural and typically more Republican, skew early results.
In Virginia, for example, the early reporting from rural counties can create a red mirage until the more Democratic Fairfax County reports its results, as seen during the 2020 election when Trump’s percentage dropped significantly once those votes were counted.
Vote Mirages Distort Early Election Results and Complicate Projections of Candidates’ Performances
The second factor influencing vote mirages is the mode of voting, which can differ by party. Democrats often utilize mail-in ballots more than Republicans, which can result in early counts showing a Democratic lead. In North Carolina during the 2020 election, the initial results from mail and early votes favored Biden, but this changed as Election Day votes, predominantly Republican, were counted later.
The order in which different voting modes are reported can also lead to misleading early results. In Arizona in 2020, for instance, early mail ballots reported largely favored Biden, creating a blue mirage. As later-arriving, more Republican votes were counted, Trump’s share of the vote increased significantly, illustrating how vote reporting can shift perceptions throughout the night.
Election analysts, such as those at the NBC News Decision Desk, consider these mirages when projecting winners. Projections depend on understanding which areas have remaining uncounted votes. For example, if a Democrat leads but uncounted votes are expected from Republican-leaning areas, the projection may be withheld until a clearer picture emerges.
As we approach the next election, expectations are set for various states based on past patterns of vote reporting.
In North Carolina, for instance, early mail votes will likely favor Democrats, leading to an initial blue mirage, while Georgia may experience a similar trend before later counts shift results toward Republicans. In Pennsylvania, early mail-in votes from Democratic strongholds are anticipated to create a blue mirage that could shift red as Election Day votes are reported.
Michigan’s voting patterns suggest a slight red mirage due to early reporting from smaller, Republican-leaning areas. This will likely change as larger Democratic cities report their results. Wisconsin is expected to see a red mirage as well, due to the quick reporting of rural votes before Democratic votes from cities like Milwaukee are counted.
In Arizona and Nevada, previous elections have shown similar mirage patterns, where early results can significantly differ from final tallies. Arizona experienced a blue mirage in 2020, with Biden initially leading before the count of Election Day votes shrank that lead.
In Nevada, early reports tend to favor Republicans until results from the heavily Democratic Clark County come in, which can shift the outcome once all votes are tabulated. Each of these trends highlights the complexities of vote counting and the potential for misinterpretation on election night.
