As lawmakers prepare to return next week, the results of recent Republican victories in both the presidential election and the Senate are influencing the debate over federal spending.
The GOP is now in a stronger position to determine the future of government funding, with decisions looming over whether to finalize the annual funding or push the deadline into next year, when President-elect Trump will assume office.
The possibility of Republican control in Washington is shaping the GOP’s approach to funding decisions. A short-term funding extension would give a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican president more control over funding for most of 2025.
Republicans gain leverage over government spending decisions as 2025 approaches
However, this would also create a workload for Trump’s first months in office, as the new administration would need to address spending, the debt ceiling, and other major priorities during its initial 100 days.
With Republicans likely to hold 53 seats in the Senate and Trump securing a decisive victory in the presidential race, control of the House is still uncertain. However, Republicans are optimistic about maintaining their slim majority.
Congress faces a critical Dec. 20 deadline to prevent a government shutdown, but both parties are still negotiating a plan to keep the government funded. Despite the urgency, few lawmakers have expressed their preference for how to move forward.
A GOP leadership aide indicated on Thursday that a stopgap measure is likely, along with a disaster aid package for FEMA and the Small Business Administration (SBA).
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who spoke on Wednesday, emphasized the importance of deciding how to allocate discretionary funds. He stressed that the Senate should prioritize doing the basic work of government and determine spending as closely to regular order as possible, though he acknowledged that discussions on wrapping up the year had not yet begun.
McConnell’s future role in the GOP leadership could play a remarkable part in these negotiations, especially as Republicans prepare to choose a new leader next week. In addition, Republicans are laying out an ambitious agenda for Trump’s first 100 days, which includes addressing the nation’s debt ceiling and extending Trump’s tax cuts, set to expire in 2025.
While Trump has not expressed a preference on when to pass a government funding bill, the debate over timing was already a key issue ahead of the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline. Initially, a plan to extend funding through early next year was considered, but House Republicans were unable to pass it, leading to the December 20 deadline.
Conservatives at the time argued that a short-term stopgap would prevent them from being pressured into an omnibus package more favorable to Democrats.
They also saw it as a way to give Trump a greater opportunity to influence funding decisions for the following year. However, the strategy faced opposition from various factions within the party, including defense hawks concerned that freezing funding at 2024 levels could harm the military, as well as fiscal conservatives critical of continuing excessive funding.
Republicans aim for a stopgap measure, with disaster aid for FEMA and the SBA in the works
Some Republicans, like House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, advocate for completing funding work this year to avoid burdening a new president with an immediate fiscal crisis. Despite these differences, these intraparty divisions are expected to continue complicating the search for a solution to the looming shutdown.
Republicans in both the House and Senate have drawn clear lines against the idea of a Christmas omnibus funding package, fearing that such a plan could lead to funding levels more favorable to Democrats. Speaker Mike Johnson reiterated in September that the GOP has moved away from the “Christmas omni” tradition, declaring that no “minibus” packages would be considered.
While Democrats have lost much of their influence over the funding process following the election, their votes may still be necessary to pass any government funding measures. Even if Republicans maintain a majority in the Senate, they will not be able to overcome a filibuster without Democratic support.
In the final days of the current session, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that the Biden administration will focus on tying up loose ends, particularly related to disaster relief, and ensuring that the government stays open.
She mentioned that they would continue to deliver aid to communities affected by recent disasters but did not offer specific details on how a shutdown might be prevented.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, argued that Congress should pass a bill this year to cover the majority of 2025. She warned that waiting until next year could lead to a political stalemate, with Republicans needing to work with Democrats to fund critical programs and services.
