President-elect Trump is likely to implement his characteristic strategy of balancing harsh rhetoric with attempts to forge connections with world leaders who are often seen as adversaries, such as those in China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, in order to weaken the alliances they share.
Whether this approach will yield a successful foreign policy remains uncertain, especially considering Trump’s unpredictable style and the differing perspectives of his prospective advisors.
Strong bonds with leaders like Putin and Kim Jong Un shape his diplomatic approach
Trump has been openly critical of European allies and NATO, accusing them of relying too heavily on the U.S. for military support, while emphasizing his close relationships with leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
During an October rally in Arizona, Trump remarked, “We’ll have a very good relationship, and there’s reasons for them to want to like us, there’s big reasons,” referring to Putin, Xi, and Kim as part of his strategy to undermine their collaboration. He added, “Look at what these stupid people have done, they’ve allowed Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and others to get together in a group, this is impossible to think.”
This coalition of countries has been labeled by some in foreign policy circles as an “axis of aggressors,” an “axis of upheaval,” or “CRINK” (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea).
The ongoing war in Ukraine has accelerated the bonds between these nations, with Putin turning to Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran for military and financial support, while those countries seek their own rewards in return, whether politically, economically, or militarily.
Experts on foreign policy argue that while these countries do not share all interests, their collective opposition to U.S. dominance on the global stage serves as a powerful unifying factor.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow and director at the Center for a New American Security, stated that the relationships among these countries are likely stronger and more lasting than many assume.
She added that each leader would likely accept U.S. concessions without abandoning their cooperation with one another. However, she noted that Trump’s bilateral approach, lacking strong support from traditional U.S. allies, could shift the balance of power toward the CRINK countries, who act in unison to some extent.
Some argue that supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia is the most effective means to confront the growing cooperation between these adversarial nations.
David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute, emphasized the importance of helping Ukraine win against Russia, stating that the CRINK countries are closely watching U.S. actions.
“It is a threat to all of us, and the best way to confront CRINK is to help Ukraine to achieve victory,” he said. These advocates for Ukraine’s success are now attempting to convince Trump that supporting Ukraine’s victory would represent a clear departure from Biden’s approach.
While President Biden has been credited with rallying European and Asian allies to support Ukraine and isolate Russia diplomatically and economically, critics argue that the U.S. has held back from providing Kyiv with the necessary tools for a decisive victory, fearing escalation with Putin.
Kramer also pointed out that “Europeans can and should do more,” a sentiment often echoed by Trump and his supporters. However, Trump has avoided committing to a strategy that would ensure Ukraine’s success in its conflict with Russia.
Some of his closest allies, such as Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, and Vice President-elect JD Vance, have criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, raised concerns about Putin’s nuclear threats, or questioned whether defending Ukraine’s sovereignty is a worthwhile cause.
Musk participated in a call between Trump and Zelensky on Wednesday, where Zelensky called the conversation “excellent” and emphasized the importance of continued U.S. leadership for peace.
Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, who has cultivated close ties with Putin, predicted that under Trump, the U.S. would pull out of the conflict. Orbán visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this year and Trump mentioned Orbán’s praise during a debate with Vice President Harris.
Robert O’Brien, who served as Trump’s national security adviser, has noted that Trump’s unpredictable approach may be part of a strategy to keep Moscow uncertain.
Elon Musk recently joined Trump and Zelensky in a call, supporting peaceful U.S. leadership efforts
In a recent Foreign Affairs article, O’Brien advocated for a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine, one that could end the fighting while ensuring Ukraine’s security.
He also called for the immediate admission of Ukraine into the European Union and for European nations to fund U.S.-provided military aid to Ukraine.
O’Brien framed this approach as part of a broader effort to address the “axis of anti-American autocracies,” which includes Russia, China, and Iran, though this perspective was written before North Korea began actively supporting Russia’s war effort by sending troops.
Nuclear weapons remain a major concern in this evolving global dynamic, with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran all advancing their nuclear programs. The U.S. is investing heavily in modernizing its nuclear arsenal, which has sparked concerns about a new arms race. Are you thinking what we are thinking over here? Well let’s see.
Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, has raised alarms about the possibility of a return to nuclear weapons testing and increased production, a policy supported by some Trump allies.
“This is what we expect many on the Hill are talking about, but there are hard questions they need to ask. And the other part is, does Trump want this?” Kimball questioned.
Trump has long warned about the potential for wars in Europe and the Middle East escalating into World War III or nuclear conflict. He has also suggested renegotiating the New START treaty governing arms control between the U.S. and Russia, with the goal of including China—a proposal that Beijing has resisted. The treaty is set to expire in 2026.
However, Kimball stressed that addressing nuclear threats will require coordination with key U.S. allies, including those in Europe and NATO, South Korea and Japan, and Israel.
“Trump is not going to have carte blanche to make deals with this rogue dictator or that rogue dictator,” Kimball noted, acknowledging the real-world constraints that will influence Trump’s actions.
