Florida solidified its place as a key Republican stronghold following a huge victory by former President Trump on Tuesday. The results were particularly striking in traditionally Democratic regions, with Miami-Dade County backing a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in 36 years.
Additionally, areas like the greater Tampa region and Jacksonville’s Duval County, which have historically leaned blue, shifted toward Trump’s side. Trump claimed the state by a decisive 13-point margin, a major improvement over his previous wins—just 3 points in 2020 and 1 point in 2016.
This victory reflects Florida’s growing Republican dominance, a trend that has been developing over the past decade. Trump’s overwhelming success, coupled with Vice President Harris’s underperformance, shows the extent to which Trump has solidified his hold on the state.
Regions like Tampa and Duval County lean Republican, signaling a red wave across Florida
Florida Republican strategist Ford O’Connell compared the shift to Georgia, suggesting that Trump’s strong performance in Duval County was indicative of a similar outcome for Georgia.
Voters in Florida, mirroring national trends, expressed concerns over the economy and immigration. According to AP VoteCast, the economy was the primary issue for 41% of voters, followed by immigration at 23% and abortion at 9%.
Justin Sayfie, a Republican strategist in Florida, argued that Trump’s commanding victory was an endorsement of his policies, especially regarding immigration, the economy, and inflation.
Many Republicans also credited the state’s success to Trump’s emphasis on populist conservatism, which resonated particularly well with voters on issues like immigration. Trump’s influence helped reshape Florida’s political dialogue, particularly among Latino communities.
In areas like Miami-Dade and Osceola counties, where Cuban American and Puerto Rican populations are prominent, Trump’s messages resonated strongly. In fact, he managed to flip Osceola County, which had been solidly Democrat in previous elections, by just over a point.
According to Sayfie and other Republican analysts, Trump’s win is the culmination of years of growth and political shifts in the state. Factors such as Florida’s population expansion, Gov. Ron DeSantis’s handling of the pandemic, and the Republican Party’s strengthening infrastructure all played crucial roles. Trump’s relocation to Florida in 2020 also impacted the state’s political alignment.
O’Connell pointed out that this political shift didn’t happen overnight, tracing the beginning of the Republican rise back to Rick Scott’s 2010 gubernatorial victory.
Scott’s win sparked a concerted effort to increase GOP voter registration, which has since paid off, with Republicans now holding over a million more registered voters than Democrats.
On Tuesday, Scott’s political fortunes continued to rise as he secured a second term in the Senate, expanding his margin of victory to over 12 points.
His success was attributed in large part to the GOP’s voter registration advantage, which allowed them to perform strongly in counties like Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Seminole. Additionally, the lack of a cohesive Democratic infrastructure in the state contributed to the Republican Party’s continued success.
Although Florida Democrats faced setbacks, they pointed to some positive developments, such as a 25% increase in voter turnout compared to the 2022 elections. They also noted that a majority of voters supported an abortion rights measure, although it eventually failed to pass due to not reaching the 60% threshold.
In the wake of the election, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried expressed determination to keep organizing and holding Republicans accountable, framing their work as an ongoing mission beyond any single election.
However, like Democrats across the country, Florida’s Democratic leaders are reflecting on what went wrong in their campaigns, particularly at the top of the ticket.
John Morgan, a major Democratic donor in Central Florida, acknowledged the party’s struggles, noting that Florida has become increasingly aligned with Texas in terms of its political leanings, while Pennsylvania has shifted toward Florida’s conservative trends.
Despite the current Republican dominance in Florida, some within the GOP have urged caution, warning that the conditions that favored Republicans could change in the future. O’Connell advised against complacency, citing Florida’s transient population as a factor that could lead to future shifts in political power.
“Republicans shouldn’t take Florida for granted,” he said. “The political landscape is always changing, and the Democrats may eventually find their footing again.”
