Donald Trump’s electoral win has brought renewed attention to U.S. policies concerning Latin America. Mexico’s alliance with authoritarian governments in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela will once again become a focal point for the leader of the United States.
Mexico is positioned as the greatest political casualty following Trump’s victory. The administration under left-leaning Claudia Sheinbaum must reconsider its diplomatic stance on issues like immigration, drug trafficking, and commerce. Mexico will need to abandon its previous confrontational approach and foster a more constructive relationship with its leading trade partner.
U.S. sanctions on Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela intensify as authoritarian regimes resist democratic reforms
In 2023, Mexico welcomed substantial Chinese investment, resulting in $4.6 billion directed toward Chinese-made vehicles, a sum rivaling the $4.4 billion spent on American cars. Mexico’s economic priorities demand a re-evaluation, as the path it opened to Chinese investment risks damaging its economy and employment landscape, a move that now faces scrutiny.
A reassessment of migration and narcotics-related policies between Mexico and the U.S. is also expected. Recently, DEA Chief Anne Milgram indicated that Mexico’s cooperation on anti-drug initiatives has been inconsistent. President-elect Trump has made it clear that if Mexico does not enhance its efforts on migration and drug control, consequences will follow.
Central America, particularly with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, will likely see shifts in policy dynamics. Bukele’s rapport with the Republican Party and Trump’s inner circle positions El Salvador for increased investment and trade under the Trump administration.
On the other hand, Guatemala and Honduras face challenges; Honduras is edging toward autocracy, while Guatemala’s political leanings lack alignment with Trump’s policies. Costa Rica and Panama could serve as natural partners for Trump, facing minimal obstacles in adapting to the new administration’s direction.
Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, led by authoritarian regimes, will see heightened sanctions. These nations remain resistant to democratic reforms but have historically managed to survive shifts in U.S. political leadership.
Venezuela aims to negotiate with Trump, drawing on past experiences where sanctions were eased under Biden. Yet some analysts warn that a transactional approach with Trump may not yield the same results, as the incoming U.S. administration might instead increase backing for Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González.
Argentina stands to gain under Trump’s presidency. President Javier Milei is set to meet with Trump soon, strengthening the bond between the two leaders, which may lead to substantial political and financial support at a critical time for Argentina.
Colombia’s relations with Trump could face strain. Although both countries share a firm commitment to countering drug trafficking, ideological differences with President Gustavo Petro could complicate ties both regionally and domestically.
Brazil, led by leftist Lula da Silva, will likely experience a frosty relationship with Trump. While Lula has openly opposed dollar dominance and fostered close economic ties with China, their nations’ strong commercial interests may keep economic cooperation intact despite political disparities.
Peru’s deepening connections with China, highlighted by the establishment of the Chancay mega-port, could create new tensions with the Trump administration due to the port’s potential geopolitical importance for the Chinese Communist Party.
U.S. policy toward Latin America now demands clarity, stability, and common sense to counter the influence of Latin American dictatorships and external powers such as China and Russia. It’s a pivotal moment to recalibrate the United States’ approach to the region.
