President-elect Trump’s allies in Congress are pushing to advance stringent immigration reforms through the Senate by employing budget reconciliation, a streamlined process that circumvents the need for a supermajority. However, they face a key obstacle in Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, who has the power to block policy measures that don’t comply with the Senate’s strict budget rules.
One of Trump’s primary goals is to curb the flow of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border. Legislation proposing tightened asylum criteria and fewer protections for migrant minors under the Flores settlement, however, is vulnerable to a Democratic filibuster, spurring some Republicans to consider budget reconciliation to pass a comprehensive border security package.
Mitch McConnell reflects on potential changes to Senate procedures before his upcoming departure
This approach, though, requires that any measure included must meet the Byrd Rule, which mandates budget reconciliation proposals to have direct fiscal impacts. While funding the border wall and expanding Border Patrol resources may comply, other measures like asylum reforms could be rejected if deemed incidental to budgetary concerns.
Senate GOP aides caution that some aspects of immigration law reform may fall outside reconciliation’s scope, noting that outstanding changes to the Immigration and Nationality Act would likely face obstacles in this setting. While executive actions offer an alternative, their lack of permanence is a drawback if reversed by future administrations.
Some Republican strategists suggest that GOP senators could overrule the parliamentarian if needed, pointing to a recent instance where the House Freedom Caucus bypassed the House parliamentarian to quash a bill. Yet, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has historically opposed such tactics, though his imminent departure as leader may open the door to appointing a parliamentarian who might be more lenient with GOP immigration proposals.
If Republicans secure a Senate majority, bypassing a Democratic filibuster would still require bipartisan support. GOP leadership may prioritize certain reforms, like the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2), which includes measures such as continuing border wall construction, adding Border Patrol agents, tightening asylum guidelines, restricting parole powers, and criminalizing visa overstays.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise emphasized border security as a reconciliation priority, outlining plans to bolster the southern border’s defenses through expanded resources and technology. Senator Lindsey Graham also advocated using reconciliation for border initiatives, envisioning it as a vehicle for both economic and security reforms.
Republicans are confident that proposals involving funding for the wall, surveillance technologies, and additional Border Patrol personnel would pass under budgetary rules, though key components of H.R. 2 might face resistance. Former Senate GOP aide James Wallner observed that achieving a favorable ruling from the parliamentarian could depend on strategic drafting and a supportive assessment from the Congressional Budget Office.
Mark Krikorian, from the Center for Immigration Studies, argues that while executive orders offer some control over immigration, sustainable change requires legislation to prevent policies from fluctuating between administrations. This opportunity, he suggests, could be pivotal for Republicans to secure lasting reforms in border security and immigration policy.
