David McCormick, a Republican, is set to defeat Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in a crucial battleground race, according to Decision Desk HQ. This victory adds to the GOP’s gains after securing control of the Senate earlier this week.
McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, claimed a win that capped a decade-long Republican effort to unseat Casey. With this result, Pennsylvania’s Senate delegation will be split once again, similar to the 12 years before Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) victory in 2022.
Casey had maintained a lead for much of the campaign, although it began to shrink in the closing weeks. An Emerson College poll showed him ahead by just one percentage point two weeks before Election Day.
Casey’s shrinking lead sets the stage for McCormick’s victory
The Pennsylvania race was one of several key contests where Republicans targeted Senate seats held by Democratic incumbents. With this win, the GOP managed to flip four Senate seats, joining successes in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Meanwhile, Democrats held onto seats in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona, the latter currently held by retiring Sen. Krysten Sinema, who became an independent in 2022.
National Republicans acknowledged the difficulty of defeating Casey, but they believed the right candidate and sufficient financial support could tip the scales. They turned to McCormick, who had lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary to Mehmet Oz, shortly after Oz’s defeat to Fetterman. Republican leaders worked to clear the field for McCormick, avoiding a contested primary to focus on Casey.
McCormick presented Casey as a senator who had accomplished little during his 18 years in office, positioning him as a mere rubber stamp for President Biden’s agenda. “You are a weak senator, you’re a liberal senator, you’re a career politician who wants to have it both ways,” McCormick said in their first debate in early October.
Casey countered by labeling McCormick as a multimillionaire outsider from Connecticut, accusing him of hurting Pennsylvania companies during his time at the hedge fund. “If he’s going to talk about his record versus my record, his record is as a hedge fund CEO investing in China and our adversaries,” Casey remarked in their second debate. “That’s his record. Mine is bipartisan work in the Senate.”
McCormick, often describing himself as a “seventh generation Pennsylvanian,” clarified that while he had lived in Connecticut during his time at Bridgewater Associates, he had resided in Pennsylvania for both Senate campaigns. He also explained that his daughter from a previous marriage still lives in Connecticut.
Defeating Casey was seen as a formidable challenge due to his established political strength. After ousting Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) in 2006, Casey easily won his subsequent reelections with 9 and 13 percentage point margins. Casey’s family legacy also loomed large in the race. His father, former Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), was a prominent anti-abortion figure in Pennsylvania politics.
Throughout the campaign, McCormick and Republicans highlighted Casey’s evolving stance on abortion, especially his support for scrapping the 60-vote requirement to protect Roe v. Wade. “There’s no senator who flip-flopped on abortion more,” McCormick remarked during their first debate, pointing out that Casey had once identified as “pro-life.”
Casey portrayed himself as a strong union supporter and a champion of Pennsylvania jobs. In the final weeks, he aired an ad aligning himself with Trump on trade and tariffs, a move Republicans viewed as a sign of vulnerability, sensing an opportunity for a GOP victory.
