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How GOP Victories Could Undermine Key Climate Legislation for Democrats

Trump’s transition team is reportedly considering the repeal of clean energy tax credits

The GOP, having secured control of the House, Senate, and White House in recent elections, now has the opportunity to roll back key climate-related provisions enacted by Democrats.

Among the top targets for Republican lawmakers is the Inflation Reduction Act, a comprehensive climate, tax, and health care package that allocates hundreds of billions in tax credits for clean energy, electric vehicles, and domestic manufacturing, which was expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Trump’s stance on repealing subsidies for wind energy aligns with his broader energy policy goals

While some Republicans have expressed hesitation about eliminating all incentives for low-carbon energy, certain provisions, like the electric vehicle subsidies, are increasingly under scrutiny. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), chair of the Conservative Climate Caucus, has indicated support for cutting tax credits for electric vehicles and charging stations, especially for individuals with high incomes.

President-elect Trump has not yet firmly stated his stance on repealing these specific credits, but reports suggest that his transition team is considering their removal. Other parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, passed without Republican support, are also likely to face repeal under the incoming GOP-controlled government.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), poised to chair the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, has already signaled that the GOP will quickly act to repeal a program imposing fees on oil and gas companies for high methane emissions.

Similarly, Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) has expressed an interest in investigating investments made through the law’s $27 billion “green bank,” which funds projects aimed at combating climate change.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has also prioritized cutting elements of the law, including the elimination of “wasteful” Green New Deal tax credits in a plan for the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. Trump has been vocal about repealing subsidies for wind energy, although the law itself does not allocate specific funds for wind energy and provides incentives for any type of energy with low emissions.

Concerns about the impact of these potential cuts have also emerged among some Republican allies. Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, warned that various tax credits, including those for carbon capture and hydrogen energy, could be at risk.

The scope of these potential cutbacks remains a point of debate within the GOP. A letter signed by 18 Republicans in August urged Speaker Johnson to refrain from repealing all energy tax credits, arguing that such a move would undermine investments already in progress. Miller-Meeks, a signatory of the letter, emphasized the need for discussions on the future of energy credits.

While Johnson has suggested that some credits might remain intact, there remains relevance division within the party over which provisions should be preserved. Some Republicans, like Miller-Meeks, are pushing for cuts to electric vehicle incentives, while others, such as Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), whose district houses a major electric vehicle plant, are less certain about repealing those tax credits.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) also acknowledged the unpopularity of the electric vehicle tax credit but stopped short of endorsing its repeal, suggesting that lawmakers need to evaluate whether it meets its intended goals. Curtis also expressed concerns about the national debt and questioned the long-term sustainability of the credits.

The law’s tax incentives have already led to considerable investment in climate technologies, with many projects taking place in districts represented by Republicans. Experts at BloombergNEF suggest that repealing these credits would likely slow down renewable energy projects, particularly in wind and solar, but would not entirely eliminate the low-carbon energy sector.

Meredith Annex of BloombergNEF noted that such a repeal would probably cause delays in renewable energy adoption, which could have serious consequences for efforts to limit global warming. Any delay in addressing climate change, she explained, could make it more difficult to achieve global climate goals, particularly in avoiding irreversible environmental tipping points.

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