Officials from the Trump administration are alerting the European Union to anticipate swift action from President-elect Donald Trump on increasing tariffs. There is also the possibility that he could bypass the EU’s central governance in Brussels, instead addressing trade concerns directly with individual European nations.
Kelly Ann Shaw, who served as deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs during Trump’s first term, highlighted that Trump had consistently discussed implementing a baseline tariff on imports during his campaign. With his decisive victory in the election, Shaw explained that the team believes they now have a mandate to follow through with these plans.
A central element of Trump’s strategy involves addressing what he perceives as an imbalance between U.S. and European Union tariff rates. Shaw noted that Trump aims to make U.S. tariffs more reciprocal by urging European nations to lower their tariffs as well.
President-elect Trump may bypass EU leadership and address trade directly with European nations
Shaw also indicated that Trump is likely to act quickly on these policies, though she was uncertain whether the action would come on Day One or sometime within the first 90 days of his presidency.
At first glance, the tariff rates between the U.S. and the EU do not appear drastically different. However, the U.S. faces specific EU tariffs that have long been a point of contention, such as the 10 percent tariff on passenger cars and higher agricultural tariffs in Europe. Additionally, U.S. businesses have raised concerns over non-tariff barriers that restrict access to the European market.
Despite the seemingly small difference in overall rates, U.S. leaders, including Shaw, see these tariffs as a key issue, particularly with the U.S. trade deficit with the EU growing steadily. Shaw believes Trump sees these trade practices as unfair and plans to address them swiftly, including the possibility of imposing up to a 20 percent tariff on all imports, which could impact billions of dollars worth of products from the EU.
Some European leaders have underestimated Trump’s resolve, but Everett Eissenstat, a former trade advisor, warned that they should not dismiss these tariff threats as mere bluffs. He noted that Trump’s consistency and the mandate granted by his election win make it likely that his policies will be implemented without opposition.
The EU is unlikely to be able to rely on Brussels alone to manage the situation, according to Eissenstat, who believes Trump will engage directly with individual European capitals. This approach was anticipated in the 2023 book by Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative, which pointed out specific EU countries as primary targets for trade discussions.
From Europe’s perspective, Ignacio García Bercero, formerly the EU’s lead negotiator during Trump’s first term, urged the EU to prepare for a possible retaliation, ensuring that they approach the situation strategically. García Bercero cautioned against a direct tariff-for-tariff approach, advising the EU to avoid measures that would harm its own interests while responding effectively to U.S. actions.
