Nate Silver, a well-known pollster, expressed his deep sympathy for Vice President Harris after her defeat to President-elect Trump, noting that President Biden’s actions, both before and after his withdrawal from the race this summer, did not benefit her campaign.
Silver argued that Biden set Harris up for failure by assigning her difficult, high-stakes tasks, such as addressing the border crisis, a sensitive issue for Democrats, and advocating for voting rights—an area where little progress was likely.
In a post on his website, Silver pointed out how Biden’s mishandling of the campaign, including disrupting the debate schedule by leaving no dates after September 11, limited Harris’s chances to perform well. “Debates were one of her strengths, but Biden’s interference diminished her opportunities,” he wrote.
Nate Silver suggests Harris’s underwhelming run was due to weak messaging and unclear positioning
Even after Biden’s exit, Silver felt that Harris was overshadowed, with the president continuing to step on her message. Silver reflected that although many sympathized with her difficult position, it did not necessarily reflect her abilities as a candidate. He went as far as calling her a “replacement-level politician,” suggesting that someone with more experience or a clearer strategy could have done better against Trump.
Silver attributed Harris’s underwhelming performance to several factors, including ineffective messaging and her reluctance to clearly differentiate herself from Biden. He also mentioned her shifting positions between the 2020 and 2024 campaigns, which made it harder for voters to understand where she stood.
Silver believed that Harris’s attempt to move towards the center in her latest campaign came across as unconvincing. He criticized the lack of clarity in explaining why she had changed her positions, which left voters confused about her vision for the future.
While acknowledging her shortcomings, Silver argued that Biden’s campaign would not have succeeded if he had remained the nominee. Citing internal polling, Silver said that Biden was trailing Trump by four points and would likely have lost by a larger margin. “Had Biden stayed in the race, the final result would have likely been even worse,” he concluded.
