Democrats and political analysts are still trying to grasp the factors behind President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, especially his success in winning all seven swing states and securing over 300 electoral votes.
The exit polls provide key insights into why Trump prevailed. Voters rejected the left-leaning policies of Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats, which prioritized progressive social issues while largely overlooking economic concerns.
Trump’s focus on issues like the economy and immigration resonated far more effectively, particularly with key groups such as young, Hispanic, and Black voters, who were essential to Harris’s path to victory.
Trump’s focus on the economy and border security helped him secure unexpected wins in swing states
The exit polls highlight that Democrats misjudged the electorate, including their traditional voter bases. They assumed that 2024 would mirror the 2022 midterms, where abortion rights overshadowed inflation, benefiting Democrats across the nation.
However, the reason of abortion as a national issue has diminished. While 27 percent of voters considered abortion the second most important issue in 2022, only 14 percent felt the same in 2024, according to CNN exit polls.
Additionally, the shift in Hispanic and Black voters’ support toward Trump is evident. In majority-Hispanic counties, Trump gained a 13-point advantage compared to 2020, while Black counties saw a 3-point shift in his favor, driven by concerns over the economy, a central theme of Trump’s campaign.
Harris and the Democrats’ failure to present a compelling economic platform hurt them with Hispanic voters, 40 percent of whom cited the economy as their primary concern—8 points higher than the national average, according to CNN.
Among those Hispanic voters who prioritized the economy, two-thirds (67 percent) supported Trump, compared to just 32 percent for Harris. Similarly, Trump captured 26 percent of Black voters who regarded the economy as their most important issue, double his support among Black voters.
Trump’s stronger performance with Hispanic voters was decisive in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, where he saw increases of 27 and 10 points, respectively, in Hispanic support compared to 2020.
The misalignment in Democrats’ messaging, particularly with Hispanic voters, became more apparent. Despite the party focusing on Trump’s anti-immigration stance, over 70 percent of Hispanic voters supported stricter border security measures, according to Unidos exit polls.
Abortion was the primary issue for 28 percent of Hispanic voters in 2022, but this year only 13 percent cited it as a key concern, according to CNN.
Similarly, young voters, who have historically supported Democrats, were less persuaded by Harris’s campaign. Counties with populations of voters aged 18-34 shifted 6 points in Trump’s favor, as reported by The New York Times.
Among voters under 30, Harris’s margin of support was cut in half compared to Biden’s 24-point advantage in 2020, down to just 11 points.
In key “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—the shift among younger voters was even more pronounced. Compared to 2020, voters under 30 shifted toward Trump by 24 points in Michigan, 18 points in Pennsylvania, and 15 points in Wisconsin, according to Edison Research.
Democrats’ failure to address economic concerns left them vulnerable to Trump’s messaging on job creation and immigration
Presidential elections, unlike midterms, are typically centered on the economy and the incumbent administration, which was a big challenge for Harris. In Tufts polling, voters under 30 ranked the economy as their top issue by nearly a four-to-one margin (40 percent to 13 percent) over abortion.
John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard’s Kennedy School Institute of Politics, noted that early focus groups showed young voters felt their financial prospects would improve under a Trump administration.
While foreign policy is often secondary to domestic issues, Harris’s failure to address the Middle East conflict alienated key voters, including Arab Americans in Michigan and Jewish voters in Pennsylvania.
In Dearborn, Michigan, a heavily Arab American city, Trump won 42 percent of the vote, while Harris secured only 36 percent—an astonishing 33-point decline compared to Biden’s performance in 2020. Many Arab American voters disapproved of Harris’s stance on Israel.
In Pennsylvania, Harris’s decision to overlook Gov. Josh Shapiro as a running mate, which some Democrats linked to a desire to appease anti-Israel progressives, may have cost her the state. Polling suggests that had she selected Shapiro, her margin of victory would have been more than double the actual result.
Harris’s poor performance in Michigan and Pennsylvania highlights the core issue of her campaign: she failed to articulate a clear agenda or distinguish herself from an unpopular President Biden.
A broader look at national and swing state polling reveals a critical flaw in Harris’s strategy. By prioritizing issues like abortion over economic concerns, Democrats alienated voters who were more focused on immediate financial pressures and concerns about the southern border.
On a positive note, the scale of the Democrats’ defeat, along with the polling data, provides a blueprint for potential recovery in 2026 and 2028. The question remains whether the party will adapt by focusing on a centrist, economy-driven platform or double down on progressive social issues.
