After November’s disappointing results, Texas Democrats are now grappling with a major setback, as their once-high hopes for statewide victories have crumbled. This loss raises concerns about the party’s future prospects and its ongoing struggle to take control in the Lone Star State.
Democrats entered the election season optimistic, particularly with high hopes for the Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D), believing they had a real shot at winning critical battles across Texas. However, as state Senator Roland Gutierrez (D) put it, the outcome was a clear “underperformance” for the party, marking another failure in their decade-long effort to turn Texas blue.
Cal Jillson, a historian at Southern Methodist University, compared it to a recurring cycle: every election cycle, Democrats believe they’re on the verge of success, thinking that with a bit more funding, they could clinch victory. Yet, this sense of hope consistently falls short.
Texas Democrats face tough questions after another crushing election defeat
Many Democrats agree that their strategy failed. The party’s messaging was ineffective, and their approach was weakened by an under-resourced, part-time staff with few connections to the state’s Democratic infrastructure. This lack of organization cost them valuable opportunities to secure victories.
According to Carroll Robinson, former chair of the Texas Coalition of Black Democrats, Democrats keep losing due to poor organization and failure to address the concerns of Texans. He argued that the party is disconnected from the state’s needs, which has kept them from making meaningful progress.
The loss was especially disheartening given the party’s confidence heading into the election. State Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D) recalled feeling optimistic, as conversations with voters gave her the impression that the race was in the bag for Democrats.
At the Democratic National Convention, Texas was touted as the “nation’s biggest battleground state” by party chair Gilberto Hinojosa, raising expectations even higher. But despite early polls showing the race tightening, Allred lost to Cruz by a margin of 9 points. Republicans also gained ground in the state House, increasing their control, particularly among the far-right faction of the GOP.
The defeat was so that it led to the resignation of Hinojosa, who had helmed the party since 2012. Many state Democrats blamed him for failing to establish a lasting infrastructure, and his tenure was marked by repeated losses that reinforced Texas’ image as an unshakably red state.
Now, with the party at a crossroads, Texas Democrats must decide whether to align with the remnants of the state’s business-oriented GOP faction or embrace the more chaotic politics of the far-right. This dilemma could define their approach to the upcoming elections.
Despite the setbacks, there were still a few bright spots for the Democrats. Despite a challenging cycle for incumbents, the party managed to retain control of Harris County, the largest urban county in Texas, and even held onto a seat in conservative Collin County, which signaled that Democrats could still make inroads in the state’s rapidly changing suburbs.
While Allred’s loss was decisive, his defeat was still less severe than that of M.J. Hegar’s race against Sen. John Cornyn (R) in 2020, another presidential election year. This suggested that, despite setbacks, Texas Democrats might be making incremental progress.
Luke Warford, who ran for the Texas Railroad Commission in 2022, pointed out that if you look at election trends from 2012 to 2024, the numbers still show gradual progress. Though the path isn’t linear and filled with setbacks, the opportunity for change remains, according to Warford.
One major challenge for Texas Democrats, however, is the erosion of their traditional base. In the Rio Grande Valley, many pro-Trump Latinos from Democratic families began shifting their allegiance to the GOP. Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini shared that these voters were once loyal to the Democratic Party because they believed it represented the working class, but now, they’re asking, “What if we don’t want to be poor?”
Ahead of the election, Allred’s campaign circulated an endorsement from former President George W. Bush, showcasing his bipartisan appeal. This strategy, which leaned towards the political center, was echoed by Rep. Marc Veasey (D), who argued that Democrats should project confidence, focus on competence, and push back on Republicans’ positions on abortion and democracy.
However, Gutierrez, a progressive Democrat, disagreed with this approach, arguing that it was a mistake to alienate progressives, who have energized the party in the past. He pointed to Beto O’Rourke’s near-success in the 2018 Senate race against Cruz, noting that progressives played a crucial role in making it close.
Gutierrez also suggested that Democrats could have done more to address rising issues like food and insurance prices, climate change, and corporate influence, which Republicans were already talking about, though often without acknowledging the role of their corporate backers in perpetuating those problems.
Democrats also missed an opportunity to highlight how the current GOP is undermining programs that were key to creating opportunities for the middle class, according to state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (D). Many of the state’s most popular programs, such as ObamaCare, broadband access, and public education funding, were originally proposed by Democrats, but Republicans only adopted them after much delay.
Election losses leave Texas Democrats searching for a path forward
These failures in messaging were compounded by a lack of strategy and insufficient fundraising. Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist, explained that to win, campaigns need an integrated, targeted approach, including media outreach, door-knocking, and phone banking. But outside of Harris County, Angle pointed out that there wasn’t enough financial support for effective voter turnout efforts.
For many Democrats, the party’s reliance on a part-time, volunteer staff proved to be a critical flaw. As Goodwin explained, there had been discussions about hiring a full-time state party leader to oversee ongoing communication with Democrats across Texas, rather than relying on short-term, get-out-the-vote efforts just before elections.
The idea of building a year-round political machine, akin to the ones that used to dominate the state, is appealing but requires substantial investment—an issue compounded by the reluctance of big donors to continue supporting the state party. As Jillson noted, Texas Republicans, led by Attorney General Ken Paxton, have also worked to curtail Democratic fundraising efforts.
With Hinojosa stepping down in 2025, the party faces a leadership vacuum, and its vision for the future will be shaped in the lead-up to the 2026 elections, when key statewide offices will be up for grabs. The 2030 redistricting cycle also looms large, with the potential to reshape the state’s political landscape for the next decade.
For Democrats, 2030 represents a crucial moment: if they fail to make meaningful gains by then, Republicans could further entrench their dominance by redrawing district lines to their advantage, just as they did in the past.
As they look to the future, Gutierrez argued that Democrats must adopt a bold vision, challenging Republicans on critical issues like healthcare, education, and trade schools. These are issues that Democrats used to champion, he said, and the party needs to reclaim them as part of their broader agenda for the country’s future.
