The incoming administration under President-elect Trump is poised to reshape U.S.-Israeli relations and broader U.S. Middle East policy by providing stronger military and diplomatic backing for Israel, aiming to weaken Israel’s adversaries, and promoting more Arab-Israeli peace agreements.
These efforts are expected to gain momentum due to the Republican Party’s control of Congress. With Israel becoming an increasingly divisive issue in American politics, Republicans will position themselves as the stronger ally of Israel, contrary to the growing criticism from the Democratic Party regarding Israeli actions in recent years.
Trump’s nomination of Elise Stefanik as U.N. ambassador signals a tougher stance on Israel at the U.N. and a greater veto presence
However, these changes in U.S. policy come with potential risks for both Washington and Jerusalem. For the U.S., such shifts could complicate the international support required for other strategic goals.
Meanwhile, Israel might be tempted to misinterpret American support, which could lead to risky actions, such as annexing parts of the West Bank, possibly jeopardizing relations with Washington.
There are at least four key areas where these policy changes will reveal:
First, Trump is assembling a pro-Israel foreign policy team, with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) nominated as ambassador to the U.N. Known for her vocal criticism of the U.N.’s anti-Israel stance, Stefanik has championed U.S. support for Israeli defense technologies like the Iron Dome and backed previous Trump initiatives, including relocating the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and facilitating the Abraham Accords.
This strong support will likely extend to both the General Assembly and the Security Council, where Stefanik will veto anti-Israel resolutions and confront the U.N. Human Rights Council’s focus on Israel.
Such vocal backing of Israel may isolate the U.S. from its European allies, raising concerns about the impact on broader Western unity on other issues. Second, public criticism of Israeli actions is expected to decrease.
Unlike President Biden, Trump is unlikely to criticize Israel for its military actions against Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump has already expressed admiration for Israeli military operations and is expected to refrain from conditioning U.S. arms shipments to Israel or pressuring Israel to limit civilian casualties.
However, Trump is less likely to confront Israel over its West Bank settlements, although this could lead to tensions if Israel pushes for annexation in the region.
Third, Trump will put more pressure on Israeli adversaries, particularly Iran. He is expected to reintroduce his “maximum pressure” campaign, imposing stronger sanctions and aiming to disrupt Iranian oil sales to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism.
Trump is also likely to let the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran deteriorate further. After Iran launched missiles at Israel, Trump suggested that Israel should target Iran’s nuclear sites. However, whether he would risk full-scale conflict with Iran remains uncertain.
Finally, Trump will aim to extend the Abraham Accords and push for further Arab-Israeli normalization. While Trump, like Biden, will work to achieve normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, recent developments—such as Saudi accusations of genocide against Israel and their growing ties with Iran—suggest that reaching a broader Arab-Israeli peace agreement may remain elusive.
While Trump’s policy changes are expected to benefit Israel, they may also create new challenges for Washington, particularly if they lead to miscalculations by Jerusalem or strain relations with other key Middle Eastern players.
