Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election was monumental, yet his conservative populism holds even greater political potential moving forward. While much of the post-election analysis has focused on areas where Trump exceeded expectations, there are also crucial regions where he failed to meet his full potential.
If Republicans can capitalize on the votes Trump missed, they have the opportunity to surpass his impressive 2024 victory margin in future elections. Trump’s triumph on Election Day was nothing short of remarkable.
Despite the establishment media’s overwhelming support for Harris and her financial edge, Trump emerged victorious in the popular vote—a first for a Republican in two decades. Additionally, he clinched all seven battleground states, surpassing both Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, who had each won only six of these states. Trump secured a decisive 312-226 electoral vote win.
Trump exceeded expectations in 2024, but his conservative support showed room for better engagement
Not only did Trump defeat Harris by a wide margin, but he also exceeded expectations once again. In the final Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump trailed Harris by a slim 0.1 percentage point.
Over the course of three elections, Trump steadily increased his share of the popular vote, from 46.1 percent in 2016 to 46.9 percent in 2020, to 50 percent in 2024. In both of the past two races, he outperformed polling predictions, exceeding expectations by 2.1 percentage points in 2024 and 2.7 percentage points in 2020.
Exit polling revealed Trump made serious gains among various demographic groups, such as reversing the traditional “gender gap” by winning men by 13 points, despite losing women by 8 points.
He garnered 13 percent of the Black vote and 46 percent of the Hispanic vote. However, Trump effectively neutralized Harris on the abortion issue, with both candidates tying at 49 percent among voters supporting abortion rights.
However, to suggest that Trump couldn’t have performed better would be inaccurate. Trump’s performance fell short with two key ideological groups: conservatives and moderates. Conservatives made up 34 percent of the 2024 electorate, and while Trump won 90 percent of their votes, he lost 9 percent.
This loss, though it may seem small, is given that conservatives should represent Trump’s core base. A conservative populist should capture almost all conservative votes, so when these votes are lost, it not only represents missed opportunities but also requires Trump to make up ground elsewhere.
To understand the political impact of losing 9 percent of conservatives, consider that multiplying it by the percentage of conservatives in the electorate results in a 3.1 percent loss of the popular vote. Given that Trump won the popular vote by just 2 percent, securing the conservative base would have pushed his total to 53.1 percent.
The impact of Trump’s failure to secure moderates was even more pronounced. Moderates, who made up 42 percent of voters in 2024, favored Harris by a 42-57 margin. This gave Harris an advantage of 7.1 percent of the popular vote among moderates.
There’s no reason that conservative populism couldn’t resonate with moderates as well. For instance, Trump managed to tie Harris on the abortion issue, indicating a shared appeal to this group. If Trump had been able to split the moderate vote more evenly, the results would have been striking. A shift of just 8.5 percent of moderate voters toward Trump would have translated into a 3.6 percent gain in the popular vote.
Addressing both his underperformance among conservatives and moderates would have resulted in an additional 6.6 percent of the popular vote. This would have given Trump a commanding 57-42 victory—a landslide that would have outpaced Bill Clinton’s 1992 win and placed Trump alongside Ronald Reagan’s overwhelming 1984 victory.
The numbers illustrate that Trump’s conservative populism has immense untapped potential. Once fully realized, it could lead to a lasting political realignment.
Although Trump’s victory was remarkable, it did not fully harness the potential of conservative populism. His relatively poor net-favorable rating, which stood at minus-7 points in exit polling, hindered the full impact of this populism. However, this does not diminish his achievement—it contextualizes it.
Trump’s win was personal in nature. It symbolized the triumph of common sense over a Democratic agenda that many Americans either didn’t care about or actively opposed. Over the past two decades, the Democratic Party has distanced itself from the public, aligning more with elite interests.
Trump intuitively recognized this gap and stepped into it. He has remained a force in American politics for three consecutive elections, increasing his popular vote share each time despite the political baggage that would have sunk nearly any other candidate.
