The 2025 gubernatorial race in Virginia is set to make a historic mark, potentially featuring two women as the leading candidates for the Republican and Democratic parties. Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) are emerging as the primary contenders, with strong backing from their respective parties.
Should Earle-Sears and Spanberger secure their party nominations, one of them will become the first female governor of the commonwealth. If Earle-Sears triumphs in the general election, she would also make history as the first Black woman to govern Virginia, a state historically important as the former capital of the Confederacy.
Virginia could see its first female governor in the 2025 election
Bob Holsworth, a seasoned political analyst in Virginia, noted the Republican Party’s delayed engagement in recruiting female candidates, while the Democratic Party has heavily relied on women voters, particularly African American women, without adequately promoting them to leadership roles.
The last woman to compete in a general election for the governor’s office was former Democratic Attorney General Mary Sue Terry in 1993. She lost by over 17 points to Republican George Allen. In the same election cycle, Christine Todd Whitman became the first woman to serve as New Jersey’s governor.
In the lead-up to the previous gubernatorial race in 2021, women participated in both the Republican convention and the Democratic primary. Former state Senator Amanda Chase (R) was a candidate in the Republican convention, which ultimately went to Governor Glenn Youngkin (R). On the Democratic side, two Black women, now-Representative Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) and state Senator Jennifer Carroll Foy (D), contested the primary but lost to former Governor Terry McAuliffe, who garnered 62 percent of the votes.
Fast forward to the current political landscape, and the primary contests for both parties have narrowed, favoring Earle-Sears and Spanberger. Governor Youngkin, a pivotal figure in the state’s Republican primary, has officially endorsed Earle-Sears. He also supported state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) for reelection, dispelling rumors of a head-to-head primary with Earle-Sears.
Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) withdrew from the gubernatorial race in April, steering clear of a potentially fierce primary contest with Spanberger, who announced her candidacy just over a year ago. Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University, emphasized the importance of having two women vying for their party nominations, noting that this clearing of the field is a rare occurrence.
While there has been a gradual increase in female representation in Congress and state legislatures nationwide, the number of female governors remains disproportionately low. Walsh explained that there are challenges for women seeking to ascend to governorships, as they are often seen as more collaborative, making them more suited for legislative roles than for executive positions.
Only 49 women have held gubernatorial positions, with just 12 currently serving. The total will momentarily rise to 14 when New Hampshire’s Governor-elect Kelly Ayotte (R) takes office next year. Meanwhile, Delaware’s Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) will serve briefly following Governor John Carney’s resignation to become the mayor of Wilmington. South Dakota’s Governor Kristi Noem (R) will vacate her office to become President-elect Trump’s Homeland Security secretary, reverting the total back to 12.
To date, the U.S. has never had a Black female governor. Given Virginia’s history, it appears that female voters, particularly Black women, could influence the outcome of next year’s off-year elections.
Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears head toward a historic gubernatorial showdown
Virginia’s political climate is noteworthy because, after Donald Trump’s 2016 election, the state experienced a huge mobilization of women in legislative races, resulting in record numbers of female candidates running and winning against incumbents. This shift foreshadowed the 2018 midterm elections.
In that year, former Governor Ralph Northam (D) garnered 61 percent of the female vote, compared to 39 percent for his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie, according to exit polling. Additionally, in the 2018 elections, three Democratic women—Spanberger, Representative Jennifer Wexton (D), and former Representative Elaine Luria (D)—ousted incumbent Republicans.
Holsworth pointed out that the former president Trump remains a complicating factor for Earle-Sears, who faces challenges due to his historically low popularity in Virginia. Despite his unpopularity, Trump improved his performance in Virginia, reducing his loss margin from 10 points in 2020 to just over 5 points in 2024.
Black women, who remain a demographic that Trump struggled to connect with in 2024, are expected to play a pivotal role in the upcoming election. Walsh highlighted their potential impact, noting that while women typically lean Democratic, Black women are the most consistent supporters of Democratic candidates, regardless of the candidates’ gender.
As a Republican, Earle-Sears may encounter obstacles in securing support from Black female voters. Spanberger must energize the influential Black vote in Virginia, a challenge she has not faced on a large scale in her congressional campaigns.
Holsworth stressed the importance for Spanberger to connect with the African American community, a demographic that has not turned out in sufficient numbers in recent elections. He noted a decline in participation from 2020 to 2024. However, applying the outcomes of the 2024 presidential election to the 2025 gubernatorial race in Virginia could be challenging.
Holsworth remarked that the voter turnout will likely drop massively, predicting that around one million fewer people will cast ballots in this election compared to the presidential election. He emphasized that for Spanberger to succeed, she needs to ensure that 60 percent of those voters are not Democrats.
