The Democratic Party seems to be veering sharply left following its recent electoral loss. Historical patterns suggest this trend is unlikely to change, as the party appears to lack a sufficient number of moderates to counterbalance its progressive elements.
The magnitude of the Democrats’ defeat is stark, highlighted by Trump’s notable popular vote gains over three consecutive elections. He also became the first Republican to win the national popular vote in two decades.
In contrast, Harris underperformed Biden’s 2020 vote percentages in nearly every state, including the District of Columbia, with Utah as the sole exception. The resulting 312-226 Electoral College outcome underscores the scale of the loss.
Democratic leaders brace for policy clashes with Trump’s new administration
Despite this setback, Harris remains a frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a recent Emerson poll. While California Governor Gavin Newsom trails her in second place, Harris’ continued prominence in the party reflects its leftward shift, even after her troubled campaign performance.
This trend is further exemplified by Democratic leaders in blue states openly preparing to clash with the incoming Trump administration over contentious issues like illegal immigration, EV subsidies, and transgender healthcare policies.
The party’s unwillingness to reassess its trajectory mirrors its reaction to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss, which saw an embrace of its radical left. That shift gained momentum with the rise of figures like The Squad following the 2018 midterms and culminated in two impeachment attempts against Trump during his presidency.
The 2020 primary highlighted the party’s ideological transformation. Although Biden initially appeared more moderate compared to his competitors, the far-left influence within the party ultimately shaped his policies.
The absence of a serious primary challenge in 2024 further concealed the party’s drift, as prominent figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez refrained from pushing for Biden’s replacement, satisfied with their influence in his administration.
Looking ahead, the Democratic Party’s trajectory suggests even greater dominance by its progressive wing. With moderates like Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and Tulsi Gabbard distancing themselves or leaving the party, there is no prominent figure left to counterbalance its leftward momentum. By 2028, the nomination process could become a contest to appease the far-left base, as the party’s middle ground continues to erode.
This progressive dominance benefits the far left regardless of electoral outcomes. When the party loses, moderates bear the brunt of the blame, while leftist policies gain traction when the party wins. A 2020 Gallup poll revealed that 76 percent of Democrats would support a socialist presidential candidate, underscoring the ideological shift among its members.
The Democrats’ ongoing internal transformation resembles a movement charging toward ideological extremity. Without moderation or leadership to challenge this direction, their current trajectory is poised to continue, leaving them increasingly influenced by the party’s most progressive voices.
J.T. Young, author of Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left, has over 30 years of experience in Congress, the Treasury Department, and the White House Office of Management and Budget.
