Following the 2024 election, which resulted in a loss for Democrats in both the White House and Congress, various theories have emerged regarding voters’ diminished receptiveness to the party’s messaging.
Recent polling conducted by Schoen Cooperman Research in collaboration with George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management offers insightful explanations. This poll, the first to focus on trust in government after the election, indicates that although voter trust in government has declined, there is a prevailing belief that it will be more effective and capable of delivering results.
Poll highlights voter move toward favoring effective government over trust in institutions
The data implies that Democrats misjudged their campaign approach. Rather than the “values campaign” centered on a trustworthy government that Democrats emphasized, voters appeared to desire an effective government, favoring Donald Trump in that regard.
An outstanding 39 percent of Americans expressed that the election results have made them less trusting of the government. Additionally, 41 percent of respondents reported decreased confidence in the government’s ability to provide “fair and accurate information.”
Conversely, a plurality of 40 percent of Americans believe the government will be more effective in accomplishing tasks moving forward, compared to 36 percent who feel it will be less effective.
The preference for effective governance over trust is particularly evident among independents, where the divide is even sharper. Independents reported a 13-point gap (39 percent to 26 percent) indicating decreased trust in government post-election. Similarly, they expressed an 11-point disparity (39 percent to 28 percent) regarding confidence in the government to share accurate information.
Despite these concerns, 39 percent of independents anticipate that the Trump administration will perform more effectively, compared to 29 percent who believe the same about Biden’s administration.
The 23-point difference in independents’ net trust (minus-13) in a potential Trump administration versus their optimism about its effectiveness (plus-10) underscores the electorate’s complex feelings. While many independents are skeptical of Trump, a considerable portion is willing to prioritize effectiveness over trustworthiness.
This cautious optimism regarding Trump was echoed in a recent CNN public poll. A majority, 54 percent, expect Trump to perform well if he returns to the White House, while 55 percent approve of his current handling of the transition. Additionally, over two-thirds of Americans (68 percent) believe Trump can enact meaningful change, a desire that pre-election surveys indicated was among voters.
While effectiveness emerged as a key concern, our survey also identified a major factor contributing to the diminished trust in government: the rise of misinformation and disinformation. Nearly 69 percent of Americans felt that increased online misinformation hindered their access to “fair and truthful news” during the 2024 campaign.
Similarly, 71 percent expressed concern regarding the impact of “deepfakes” on disinformation spread during the election. In light of these issues, 45 percent of Americans reported distrust in both government and news organizations to provide accurate information.
This declining trust in government and media is further complicated by a fragmented media landscape, necessitating communication through an ever-growing array of platforms. While 76 percent of Americans under 30 obtain news from social media, a striking 84 percent of seniors prefer television, with only 27 percent of that age group using social media for news.
However, even among social media users, news sources vary by age. About 61 percent of those under 30 receive news from TikTok, while only 8 percent of individuals over 65 do the same.
Together, these insights suggest that addressing what seems to be a pervasive issue will be challenging. It will be crucial for both media and government to adapt to the diverse ways people access news and information.
In 2020, then-candidate Biden campaigned on core values, asserting that “the core values of this nation…our very democracy…is at stake.” Vice President Kamala Harris ran a similar campaign. However, this election marked a shift, with voters expressing a greater interest in a government capable of delivering results rather than a candidate promising to restore trust in institutions that many no longer believe in.
Our post-election poll reveals that voters prioritized effectiveness over the preservation of democracy. Although skepticism toward institutions remains high, there is cautious optimism that the incoming administration can provide tangible solutions to real-world problems.
